How To Lose An Election

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With the Presidential election nearly one year away, it may sound a bit overly pessimistic to assert that Republicans are poised for defeat. After all Obama is one of the greatest disasters in the Oval Office in decades and were it not for the fact that journalist, educators and academics act as his personal advocates, the vast majority of Americans would be of that opinion. But Obama is not a disaster because he has not achieved his objective; he is a disaster because he has. So why do I believe Republicans will lose next Fall?

Even if Republicans prove victorious in the next Presidential election I fear they will once again sow the seeds of long-lasting defeat. In effect, Republicans will demonstrate their mastery of the art of losing by winning.

The most common lament of Republicans (Tea Party included) is the fact that it is so hard to find a Republican who is willing to stand on principle. The problem of course is that the moment someone answers the call, he/she is immediately derided as hopelessly “unrealistic” and dismissed as “unelectable.” To be appealing to Republicans one has to be principled but to actually get their vote one has to be the typical slick politician.

Republicans will therefore follow the dictates of the GOP establishment and nominate a “safe” candidate, which is to say, a candidate who either meets with the approval of or does not stir the fears of the Left. They will cast their pearls before a candidate who they believe is likely to win based on the assessments of “consultants,” rather than the candidate most likely to uphold the values cherished by people who call themselves “Republicans.” For many Republicans, the defeat of Obama represents a moral victory rather than an actual opportunity to right a great many wrongs imbedded in to the American political, social and economic system over the past 100 or more years. So they will seek only to win the next election. As for laying the groundwork for a counter-offensive against the Left, they have no such ambitions. That is the shame, because the current climate presents a perfect opportunity to accomplish both.

Yet before one can engage in battle one has to understand the lay of the land. Forget what you have been told by the hoards of politically-connected “consultants” and celebrity talking-heads. Clear your mind of the rubbish regarding the so-called “independents” and “undecided’s.” The US electorate is actually quite easy to identify and understand. So here goes:

Block Votes
Democrats generally enter an election cycle with a 10 - 12 point advantage. This point spread is made up of groups that vote Democrat irrespective of the candidate or the issues. It includes: Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Gays and Union members. With exception of Union members each group individually accounts for relatively few votes, whereas the combined force of their numbers can be a deciding factor in local, state and national elections. These are the voters on whom Democrats do not have to expend many resources as their support is virtually assured due to the irrational fears they harbour towards Republicans. The only real issue here for the Left is voter turnout. This is most certainly a major handicap for the GOP, but it is by no means insurmountable.

As for Gays and union members, their issues of concern place them in an inimitably adversarial relationship with Conservatives/Classical Liberals. There is therefore, little that can be done to appeal to these groups that would not involve, on some level, an abandonment of the principles which Republicans purport to represent. However there is, much that Republicans can do to broaden their appeal among Blacks, Hispanics and Jews. A good starting point would be developing the courage to stand on principle in the face of the mindless calls for “compromise.” Additionally the GOP has to address them as American citizens as opposed to some special minority class thereof.

*"Gays" here does not mean those who are engaged in same-sex relationships. Rather it applies to those who seek political, social and/or economic privileges on the basis of their sexual preference.

Young People

While younger people (18-29) generate enormous public clamour they comprise a rather small percentage of actual voters. Even the famed student movements of the 1960’s which forced major changes in social and economic policy did little to effect electoral results. In fact, these students eventually forced the DNC to nominate George McGovern for President against a wildly unpopular Richard Nixon. Nixon carried 49 states in the election that followed. Young people simply do not vote in sufficient numbers to have an appreciable impact on national elections. Democrats know this as well as Republicans. So why are they an important demographic?

Democrats practice the art of preparing the field for next-year’s harvest. By appealing to younger people today when they are less likely to vote, Democrats reap the rewards of their support tomorrow when their votes do matter. In actuality, the Left’s preparation of the youth begins at the grade-school level. Democrats may follow the Keynesian method of focusing on the near-term in economic policy but their electoral strategy is centred squarely on the long run.

Senior Citizens

The elderly (65 and over) are, as a group, the most active electoral participants. This is most likely a matter of having the time available to inform themselves of issues of importance. Like the 30-64 age group, they often split somewhat equally for Democrats and Republicans in national and state elections. At the local level however, the elderly represent a more homogeneous grouping. Thus some communities can be expected to be solid blocks for either Democrats or Republicans. The issues which can swing their vote typically involve changes in the system of entitlements targeted for the elderly.

The GOP has to have the courage to make the case for common-sense reform. More importantly they need to intelligence to do so in a way that does not play into the stereotype of Republicans as heartless and insensitive.

The “Real” Swing Voters

The only category of voters whose support is up-for-grabs at the national level is heterosexual, non-union, White men and women under the age of 65. This demographic tends to vote on the basis of economics, foreign policy and national security concerns yet they have shown a small but noticeable tendency to vote on key social issues as well (i.e. illegal immigration, abortion and gay marriage). Although they vote nearly 50/50 for Democrats and Republicans, a candidate’s position on the issues can swing the demographic 7 or more points either way.

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Based upon many fruitless discussions with Republicans I am convinced that the GOP, along with the average Republican voter stakes its hopes on securing a temporary electoral victory. I truly believe that we will watch once again, as Republicans ignore the opportunity to broaden its base in hopes of gaining a few additional points among the elderly and swing voters. Why? Because it safe. And for a group of people (Conservatives/Classical Liberals) who pride themselves on the ideals of free enterprise where he who accepts the greatest risk often reaps the greatest reward, Republicans are obsessed with playing it safe in politics. They are willing to lose the American dream not only for themselves but for generations to come in exchange for the temporary euphoria of claiming victory on Election Day.

Democrats on the other hand, focus on tillage. Following basic revolutionary tactics, the Left will often engage in battles they know they have little hope of winning. The point is not to win (though they will take it if they can get it) but to sow the seeds for an offensive that is 2, 5 or perhaps 10 years down the line. It’s an investment in the future and like all investments, one willingly accepts a bit of sacrifice in the present. The Left is willing to risk defeat if it means they can use the national spotlight for effective propaganda purposes. In this way they demonstrate more courage and a greater understanding of the psyche of the people than their opponents. So while the Republicans seek only to get someone in office with an “R” behind his/her name because it makes them feel better, their opponents busy themselves winning the culture.

If Republicans want to have a lasting impact on the American culture, and not just the next election, they will have to choose between:

1) Repairing the leaks in the hull of the ship, and
2) Remaining in shallow water where sinking wont hurt as much